Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 32.760585 36.363063 40.395760 45.285185 51.108660 57.894882 66.510396
2025-07-13 27.241689 31.892814 37.548957 45.085043 55.109028 68.372704 87.981945
2025-07-20 23.705794 28.867984 35.552430 45.156423 59.189470 80.048793 115.994152
2025-07-27 21.405911 26.905480 34.403349 45.895519 64.175933 94.586132 156.274344
2025-08-03 19.384816 24.955100 32.856306 45.606923 67.378355 107.403588 202.635692
2025-08-10 17.773586 23.331755 31.478350 45.214348 70.186529 120.602380 261.992514
2025-08-17 16.579824 22.148874 30.557762 45.326985 73.853369 137.214014 351.196491
2025-08-24 15.459487 20.943119 29.424299 44.831608 76.168607 152.013344 460.666698
2025-08-31 14.516087 19.908629 28.428684 44.386568 78.444336 168.100787 615.825427
2025-09-07 13.692368 18.982718 27.500370 43.898056 80.486489 184.977689 838.400988
2025-09-14 13.011611 18.223938 26.767963 43.659532 83.052022 205.511035 1209.406155
2025-09-21 12.341816 17.429624 25.892771 42.997338 84.410722 223.237970 1733.329842
2025-09-28 12.148199 17.411751 26.401457 45.319564 94.491087 286.448683 4786.347990
2025-10-05 11.622132 16.800085 25.780127 45.135141 97.672147 324.382691 11942.667265
2025-10-12 11.177520 16.295192 25.308329 45.213724 101.750731 374.454628 71882.714430
2025-10-19 10.850474 15.968296 25.138104 45.957436 108.305987 454.168160 NaN
2025-10-26 10.434601 15.458286 24.569477 45.669675 111.369435 518.434189 NaN
2025-11-02 10.041825 14.964880 23.991730 45.276917 113.997383 589.086440 NaN
2025-11-09 9.731473 14.599510 23.636580 45.390061 118.664389 700.052095 NaN
2025-11-16 9.384585 14.148631 23.074135 44.893781 120.816348 795.562512 NaN
2025-11-23 9.067268 13.734739 22.556569 44.447879 123.097726 910.878630 NaN
2025-11-30 8.767688 13.338222 22.046826 43.958389 125.090907 1041.993431 NaN
2025-12-07 8.509793 13.005831 21.647288 43.719388 128.219444 1231.197102 NaN